Al-Akhbar: The good news is that a political settlement of the
Bahraini crisis – sponsored by the United States and acceptable to Iran –
is beginning to take shape. The problem is that Saudi Arabia is not yet
ready to play along.
Recent developments on the Bahraini crisis suggest that agreement on a
political resolution, initiated by Washington and agreed to by Tehran,
is gaining momentum. However, it appears that Saudi Arabia is not yet
ready to sign on to the deal, encouraging elements in Manama over which
it has sway to take a hard line against the nearly three-year uprising.
The details of the proposed six-point agreement were discussed in
several meetings held in London in August attended by Crown Prince
Salman bin Khalifa and the Secretary General of Wefaq Ali Salman, with
American oversight. It would involve giving the Shia opposition a
majority in parliament, which in turn would gradually be turned into a
legislative, rather than simply an advisory, body.
The prime minister would still be appointed by the king, but must be
approved by the legislature. And while the ruling family would retain
sensitive ministerial posts such as finance, defense, interior, and
foreign affairs in the government, the remaining portfolios would be
given to the opposition. Finally, the regime would have to release all
prisoners and facilitate the return of those employees laid off during
the course of the uprising.
Today, there are three major currents in the Bahraini regime that are
competing over what course to take in dealing the crisis: the
Saudi-backed prime minister, Khalifa bin Khalifa, represents the
hard-liners; the reform-minded crown prince favors a more conciliatory
approach; King Hamad bin Khalifa plays the middle ground between the
two.
The US plan was offered to the Iranians, who found it acceptable. It
was not only that the Bahraini crisis was becoming a major burden on
American interests in the region, but the Barack Obama administration
was hoping to neutralize Iran’s involvement in Syria in return for
resolving the interminable Bahraini conflict.
But when the strike against Syria did not materialize, the Americans
were no longer as enthusiastic about pushing their proposal, because
they would not receive anything in return from the Iranian side.
This
allowed those who have the most to lose from a political settlement,
such as Saudi Arabia, to take an uncompromising stand and reinforce the
hard-liners’ position in Manama, prompting them to unleash a major
crackdown that has seen dozens of activists jailed under harsh
sentences.
A meeting between the Bahraini and Iranian foreign ministers on the
sidelines of the UN General Assembly gathering in New York – in which
Manama’s envoy asked the Iranians to return their ambassador to the
kingdom – did not result in either side taking concrete steps. Today,
progress in Bahrain remains hostage to developments in Syria and the
power struggle underway in the region as a whole.
This article is an edited translation from the Arabic Edition.
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