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| A boy walks on the rubble of buildings damaged by what activists said were missiles fired by Syrian Air Force fighter jets loyal to President Bashar al-Assad in Salqin city, Idlib governate, May 28, 2013. |
It has been a tough couple of days for the
Syria conflict, with announcements on arms for the rebels and the
government, and more delays in the U.S.-Russian effort to convene a
peace conference.
Britain and France won a significant victory at a meeting of European
Union foreign ministers Monday, with an agreement not to renew an
embargo that prevented them from sending arms to the Syrian rebels. EU
foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton announced the decision after a
day-long meeting in Brussels.
“Everybody is trying to work out how
best to support the people of Syria, and how best to ensure that we get
to a political solution as quickly as possible," she said.
But the EU members agreed not to actually send any weapons to the
rebels at least until they see whether the United States and Russia
succeed in convening a peace conference.
Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov responded to the EU
decision on Tuesday, calling it “regrettable,” and he confirmed that his
government will deliver new anti-aircraft missiles to the Syrian
government.
He said Russia is providing defense to an established government based
on an existing contract, and that the missiles would allow Damascus to
respond to an air threat - a capability the rebels do not currently
possess. Analysts say the missiles are intended to deter any further
Israeli airstrikes and any possible intervention from Europe or by the
United States.
Meanwhile, Russian Foreign Minister
Sergei Lavrov and U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry met in Paris, but
were unable to confirm plans for the peace conference.
Russia has gotten what it calls an agreement “in principle” from the
Syrian government to send a representative. But some opposition parties
remain staunchly opposed to talking to the government and to any future
role for Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.
Secretary Kerry confirmed that getting commitments from all the Syrian parties is the main stumbling block.
“We both want to make this conference happen, if possible, together
with many other countries that have joined up. We talked about the
participants, and that is an ongoing conversation," he said.
Some analysts believe recent events may force the opposition’s hand.
At the IHS Jane’s security firm, analyst David Hartwell says Assad has
been strengthened in recent weeks by the Russian missiles, other weapons
from Iran, support from Hezbollah and recent battlefield gains,
combined with the opposition's disunity and concern among many Syrians
about militant influence among the rebels.
“All of these factors appear to be coalescing at this moment in time to
give him, or certainly give the appearance, that he can think about
long-term survival," he said.
Hartwell says confidence is up within the Assad regime, and it could
press for more military advances in the coming days, including a
possible assault on the country’s largest city, Aleppo.
Syria-watcher Chris Doyle of the Council for Arab-British Understanding
reluctantly agrees that Assad is in a strong enough position that he
might survive politically, at least during a transition period.
“I think that cannot be ruled out, as distasteful as that is, given his
record. If it is symbolic, then maybe that is something that people
will have to agree to, while holding their noses," he said.
But that is not something much of the Syrian opposition is ready to do.
And Doyle says if plans for the peace conference falter and some EU
countries do send weapons to the rebels, it will only make the
humanitarian situation worse and the prospects of a political solution
even more remote
Sources :
http://www.voanews.com/content/syria-crisis-deepens-arms-race-assad-gains/1669809.html
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